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That’s scary.” If Trump is elected, Jörg is convinced, he would withdraw American troops from Europe and stop aid to Ukraine. Jim Bourg/AFP/Getty ImagesSix months ahead of the vote, this soccer field conversation reflects the German view of the US elections quite well. Kirill Kudryavtsev/AFP/Getty ImagesIt’s an optimistic view, based on the assumption that Trump will act rationally, as a deal-maker, if elected. What if Trump tries to take America out of NATO or creates a “dormant NATO,” a NATO existent only in name? Another Trump presidency would not only put Germany’s security at risk, but also manifest this view of the US for another four years.
Persons: Thomas Ernst Editor’s, Anna Sauerbrey, Read, , , Jörg, Miguel, Donald Trump, , “ Trump, Trump, “ I’m, Piero, Joe Biden, Jim Bourg, Europe’s, Russia “, Olaf Scholz, Michael Kappeler, ” Scholz, mums, Annalena Baerbock, Greg Abbott, Biden, Kirill Kudryavtsev, George H, Bush’s, Barack Obama, Obama, Heinz M, Schahina Gambir, Gambir, Roe, Wade, Bob Parent Organizations: Zeit, Berlin CNN —, Köpenicker FC, CNN, Biden, Trump, Getty, NATO, Republican, European Union, European Central Bank, EU, , Dallas Mavericks, Mavericks, LA Clippers, NBA, Green, Bundestag Locations: Berlin, America, Taiwan, Europe, Ukraine, Italy, AFP, Gaza, Germany, Russia, United States, Trump, Texas, China, Poland, France, Frankfurt, Kabul, New York City, New York
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesLONDON — U.K. inflation could be about to hit a major milestone, with some forecasting that a sharp fall in the April print will take the headline rate below the Bank of England's 2% target. That would represent a plunge from the current level of 3.2% and could "make or break" a June interest rate cut, economists say. Ashley Webb, U.K. economist at Capital Economics, said that if the headline rate does fall below 2% in April, as he expects, it would be "momentous." "This will be crucial in determining whether the first interest rate cut from 5.25% will happen in June (as we expect) or in August. We think inflation will fall further, perhaps even to 1.0% later this year," Webb said in a Friday note.
Persons: Ashley Webb, What's, Webb, , BOE Governor Andrew Bailey, BOE, Ben Broadbent, James Smith, ING's Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Bank of England's, Capital Economics, Bank of England, European Central Bank, ING Locations: Kingston, London, U.K
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEuropean Central Bank appears to be closer to rate cuts than U.S. Federal ReserveCNBC's Steve Liesman reports on the latest from the Federal Reserve.
Persons: Steve Liesman Organizations: Central Bank, . Federal, Federal Reserve
Dollar calm as traders await clues on U.S. rate path
  + stars: | 2024-05-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
In this photo illustration, a person seen holding a 100 US dollar bill in his hand. The dollar was broadly steady on Monday as investors awaited further clues to help chart the U.S. interest rate path in the wake of cautious comments from Federal Reserve officials, even as inflation shows signs of cooling. The Japanese yen was flat at 155.74 per dollar, with traders on alert for any signs of government intervention. That has prompted traders to trim the amount of easing expected this year to about 46 bps, with only a rate cut in November fully priced in. In other currencies, sterling touched a two-month high of $1.2711 ahead of the crucial UK inflation report due on Wednesday.
Persons: Brian Jacobsen, Powell, Jackson, Flash PMIs, Paul Mackel, BoE, Charu Chanana Organizations: Federal Reserve, Annex Wealth Management, ANZ, European Central Bank, Bank of England, HSBC, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New, Saxo Locations: Tokyo, Germany, U.S, Reserve Bank of New Zealand
European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel warned against back-to-back rate cuts amid lingering inflation risks, Nikkei reported Friday, as the central bank gears for its June meeting amid expectations of a rate cut. While a rate cut in June could be warranted depending on incoming data and projections, things are less certain beyond that, Schnabel told Nikkei. "After so many years of very high inflation and with inflation risks still being tilted to the upside, a front-loading of the easing process would come with a risk of easing prematurely," the ECB board member added. Geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty amid a slew of elections worldwide this year also pose risks to euro area financial stability, the ECB said in a recent financial stability review. The review, however, highlighted that financial stability conditions have improved.
Persons: Isabel Schnabel, Schnabel, Luis de Guindos Organizations: European Central Bank, Nikkei, ECB Locations: disinflation
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomic outlook has improved but markets underestimate geopolitical risk: ECB's De GuindosLuis de Guindos, vice-president of the European Central Bank, discusses the institution's latest Financial Stability Review and market perceptions of geopolitical risk.
Persons: De Guindos Luis de Guindos Organizations: European Central Bank
Dollar sags as slower U.S. inflation boosts rate cut expectations
  + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar skidded to multi-month lows on Thursday after U.S. core inflation hit its slowest in three years and retail sales turned flat, which pulled forward expectations for rate cuts in the world's biggest economy. The dollar skidded to multi-month lows on Thursday after U.S. core inflation hit its slowest in three years and retail sales turned flat, which pulled forward expectations for rate cuts in the world's biggest economy. Stocks and other risk-sensitive assets such as the Australian dollar led gains in the wake of the data release. The New Zealand dollar hit a two-month high at $0.6131. Softer-than-expected retail sales figures, which were flat last month instead of the 0.4% gain that economists had forecast, reinforced the newfound confidence in rate cuts.
Persons: Sterling, Bart Wakabayashi, China's, Bitcoin Organizations: Australian, New Zealand, U.S, State, European Central Bank Locations: Asia, Tokyo, Treasuries
And simultaneously, we are referring to geopolitical risks. I think that, you know, markets sometimes are underestimating the potential impact of geopolitical risks that are there," Luis de Guindos told CNBC's Annette Weisbach. Rising geopolitical risks present "considerable downside risks," the ECB warned in the report. The report attributes the rally in financial markets to analyst expectations of interest rate cuts from major central banks this year. "And that's the element that you cannot ignore, you cannot overlook this potential impact that could affect risk aversion, risk attraction, commodity prices, growth, overall growth in the global economy."
Persons: Luis de Guindos, CNBC's Annette Weisbach, De Guindos Organizations: European Central Bank, Stock, U.S, ECB Locations: U.S, Europe, East, Ukraine
As much as $300 billion in Russian assets, frozen in the West since the invasion of Ukraine, is piling up profits and interest income by the day. Now, Europe and the United States are considering how to use those gains to aid the Ukrainian military as it wages a grueling battle against Russian forces. There has been a debate for months about whether it would be legal or even wise to confiscate the frozen assets altogether. They argue that confiscation would be a bad precedent, a violation of sovereignty and could lead to legal challenges, financial instability and retaliatory seizures of Western assets abroad. But proposals to seize and use the profits earned on those Russian assets — the interest on accumulated cash stemming from the sanctions, said Euroclear, a financial services company — are gaining considerable ground.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Euroclear Organizations: Russian, European Central Bank Locations: West, Ukraine, Europe, United States, Britain, France, Germany, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia
Tuesday’s wholesale inflation data, which jumped to its highest rate in a year, certainly wasn’t a source of comfort. “I wouldn’t call it hot, I would call it sort of mixed,” Powell said Tuesday, referring to the new wholesale inflation data. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell (center) spoke Tuesday at an event hosted by the Foreign Bankers' Association alongside European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot. Another troubling sign for US central bankers is consumers’ belief that inflation will move higher in the year ahead, according to two surveys Fed officials monitor closely. That can lead to higher prices.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Price, ” Powell, , Klaas, Michelle Bowman Organizations: New, New York CNN, Foreign Bankers ’ Association, European Central Bank Governing, Federal, Foreign Bankers, Association alongside European Central Bank Governing, Foreign Bankers Amsterdam, Locations: New York
Michael M. Santiago | Getty ImagesEuropean stocks are now more attractive than their U.S. counterparts, according to Swiss Bank UBS , with factors such as economic data, interest rates and earnings playing a key role. In a note entitled: "A U-Turn: Favouring Europe over US equities," the bank's strategists said European stocks excluding the U.K. now outrank the U.S. on its "regional scorecard." UBS outlined a number of reasons for its "U-turn," especially given U.S. markets tend to outperform European ones. Indicators tracked by the bank — such as purchasing managers' index (PMI) data — suggest an upside risk to European GDP, and a downside risk to U.S. GDP, the bank said. Some of Europe's central banks have already begun easing, and the European Central Bank is expected to do so as soon as June.
Persons: Michael M Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Getty, Swiss Bank UBS, UBS, U.S, European Central Bank Locations: New York City, U.S, Europe, Japan, Swiss
Dollar holds its ground as key inflation data looms
  + stars: | 2024-05-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
U.S. one hundred dollar bills are being shown in this picture illustration taken in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Dec. 15, 2023. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar slowly inched up after it fell more than 3% last week, its biggest weekly percentage drop since early December 2022. Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda on Thursday reiterated a warning that Tokyo is ready to take action in the currency market. The dollar index rose to 0.05% to 105.55, while the Japanese yen was mostly flat at 155.59 per greenback. The BOE is likely to take another step towards its first interest rate cut in four years as inflation falls.
Persons: Masafumi Yamamoto, Masato Kanda, Susan Collins, Sterling, BOE, bitcoin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of, Mizuho Securities, Traders, PPI, Fed Bank of Boston, European Central Bank Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, Japan, U.S, United States, Tokyo,
BRUSSELS, Belgium — European diplomats have already started key negotiations on who will take the main jobs at the European Union following elections next month. Voters across the 27-member EU are heading to the polls between June 6 and 9 to choose the next set of representatives in the European Parliament. The very top EU jobs, which aren't directly elected, then get dished out in the weeks following. Diplomats within the EU are already trying to figure out who will be leading the three big institutions in the coming years: The European Commission, the European Council and the European Parliament. "Von der Leyen has a lot of support from European heads of state," one of the three sources told CNBC via telephone.
Persons: aren't, Ursula von der Leyen, Von der Leyen, Emmanuel Macron, Christine Lagarde Organizations: European, Voters, EU, Parliament, Diplomats, European Commission, European Council, CNBC, European Central Bank Locations: BRUSSELS, Belgium, policymaking, Brussels
This is in part the doing of so-called "golden visas," hugely popular residency visas for foreign investors. And they purchased more Portuguese golden visas than any other nationality in 2022. Related storiesBut as Portugal has experienced a worsening housing affordability crisis, Portuguese public opinion on golden visas has soured. Last year, the country changed the terms of its golden visa program to exclude real estate investment. Other southern European countries are following suit, similarly pointing to skyrocketing real estate prices.
Persons: , They're, they're, João Pereira dos Santos, Pereira dos Santos, Nuno Fazenda, Holger Schmieding, Schmieding, David Zorrakino Organizations: Service, Business, The New York Times, School of Economics, Finance, Queen Mary University of London, State, Tourism, Trade, Services, Bloomberg, Berenberg Bank, Getty, European Central Bank, Paris Locations: Greece, Portugal, Tourism, Lisbon, Athens, Spain, Southern Europe, Portuguese, London, Ramblas, Barcelona, Catalonia, Europe, Germany, Netherlands, France
"The Fed is the central bank most able to chart its own course," Citi economist Andrew Hollenhorst said in a client note Wednesday. It was the first time the Riksbank had cut since 2016 and takes its main policy rate down to 3.75%. The Riksbank's move was the second central bank cut of the year, as the Swiss National Bank reduced its key rate a quarter point in March in what was seen as a surprise action. Reductions from the Bank of England and European Central Bank are expected to come next, possibly within a month. "With the exception of Japan, developed markets are embarking on a program of rate cuts," Hollenhorst said.
Persons: Andrew Hollenhorst, BOE, Mark, Bailey, Citi's Hollenhorst, Christine Lagarde, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Lagarde, Hollenhorst Organizations: U.S . Federal, Citigroup, Citi, Sweden's, Swiss National Bank, Bank of England, European Central Bank, Bank of America Locations: U.S, Japan
A German political party proposed a government cap on doner kebabs. Around €7 billion, or around $7.5 billion, worth of doner kebabs are sold every year in Germany, according to The Guardian and The Independent. The party plans to propose a government price cap of €4.90 (around $5.30) or €2.90 (around $3.10) for young people, The Guardian reported. If those decrease, then kebab prices also decrease," Gebel told BI. "The kebab price will remain high if the government does not change anything," she said.
Persons: Chancellor Scholz, , Kathi, Gebel, Olaf Scholz, Virginia Mayo, Scholz, Putin … I'm Organizations: Guardian, Service, Independent, Left Party, AP, European Central Bank, Federal Statistical Office Locations: Germany, Brussels, Virginia
Invigorating growth is critical: When the economy expands, it improves standards of living, promotes innovation and makes households wealthier. Economic growth in Spain and France was stronger than expected last year. But the US is outperforming mainly for one key reason: Robust productivity growth. Productivity growth came in well below expectations in the first three months of the year, according to Labor Department data released last week. A “course correction” isn’t an even stronger US economy: Economic policymakers around the world need to address a range of key issues.
Persons: ” Kristalina Georgieva, ” Georgieva, ” Stephen Gallagher, Gallagher, , , Hande Atay Alam, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Israel Katz, John Williams, Neel Kashkari, Lisa Cook, Krispy Kreme, John’s, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Washington CNN, Monetary, IMF, European Central Bank, Labor Department, Societe Generale, CNN, Reuters, Palantir Technologies, Tyson Foods, Marriott Worldwide, New York Fed, Disney, UBS, Duke Energy, Suncor, Bros, Minneapolis, Toyota, Uber, Anheuser, Busch InBev, Airbnb, Fox Corporation, News Corporation, Duolingo, Icahn Enterprises, New York Times Company, AMC Entertainment, Honda, Warner Bros Discovery, Warner Music Group, Hyatt, Hilton, Bank of England, US Labor Department, United Kingdom’s, National Statistics, University of Michigan, . Chicago Fed, China’s National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Europe, China, United States, Spain, France, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, Israel, Gaza, Olesya, “ Turkey, Lyft, TripAdvisor
The prospect of the European Central Bank diverging from the Federal Reserve on interest rate cuts is likely to be "particularly negative" for the 20-nation euro zone, according to one economist. The ECB appears on course to cut interest rates in June, barring any major surprises, and recent inflation data has since bolstered the case for an imminent reduction in borrowing costs. It leaves the ECB firmly on track to cut interest rates before the Fed. "The problem of cutting rates right now is that the ECB takes for granted the strength of the euro . Lacalle said a June rate cut from the ECB was not going to make German, French or Spanish businesses take more credit "because a small rate cut is not the driver of credit demand."
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Daniel Lacalle, Gestion, CNBC's, Lacalle Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Federal Reserve, CNBC Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, U.S
In the United States, the Federal Reserve left interest rates steady on Wednesday, citing wariness about how stubborn inflation was proving. Even so, the United States is expected to remain an engine of global growth this year, expanding at a 2.6 percent pace, the O.E.C.D. Both the euro currency bloc and Britain ended 2023 in recession, deepened by record high interest rates deployed by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England to help fight inflation. The outlook should improve next year, as high interest rates come down, unleashing more spending by businesses and households. forecast the eurozone economy to expand at 1.5 percent in 2025, more than double the expected growth rate this year.
Persons: “ We’ve, Clare Lombardelli, Lombardelli Organizations: Federal Reserve, Britain, European Central Bank, Bank of England Locations: United States, Europe, Germany, Greece, Spain
Price rises in the euro area held steady at 2.4% in April, while the economy returned to growth in the first quarter, according to flash figures published Tuesday. Headline inflation of 2.4% was in line with the forecast of economists polled by Reuters. It is the seventh straight month the headline rate has been below 3%, despite a slight rebound in the rate in December due to energy prices. Core inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, dipped to 2.7% from 2.9% in March. However, Martinez noted the slightly lower-than-expected fall in core inflation and volatility in some areas of services that had increased the inflation rates in France and Italy.
Persons: Price, Gerardo Martinez, Martinez, Jane Foley, Foley Organizations: Reuters, European Central Bank, Gross, ECB, CNBC, BNP, Rabobank Locations: Europe, France, Italy
The yen held its line against the dollar on Tuesday after making sharp gains the previous day in moves that traders said were sparked by suspected intervention by Japanese authorities. "There is clearly a possibility that the sharp and sudden lifts in the JPY were sparked by intervention. Official figures that would reveal whether intervention did in fact occur won't be available until late May. The Japanese currency still sits lower than it was before the Bank of Japan's policy announcement last week. The Fed is expected to strike a hawkish message, meaning more yen selling is likely, CBA's Kong said.
Persons: haven't, Masato Kanda, Carol Kong, bode, CBA's Kong, pare, Sterling, bitcoin Organizations: Federal, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Trading, Markets, Bank of, Fed, Traders, European Central Bank Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, Tokyo, Asia, Japan, U.S, Bank of England
What is divestment? And does it work?
  + stars: | 2024-04-28 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
From Princeton University in New Jersey to the University of Southern California in Los Angeles, the same chant can be heard: “Disclose! The specifics of student protesters’ divestment demands vary in scope from school to school. Other students, like those at Cornell University and Yale, are asking their schools to stop investing in weapons manufacturers. Other common threads include demanding universities disclose their investments, sever academic ties with Israeli universities and support a ceasefire in Gaza. Proponents for divestment counter that its value lies in raising awareness and stigmatizing partnerships with targeted regimes or industries.
Persons: , ” Israel, Witold Henisz, Henisz, , Nicholas Dirks, ” Dirks, Dirks, “ They’ll, Anna Cooban, Michelle Bowman, Eli Lilly, Estee Lauder, Jerome Powell Organizations: New, New York CNN, Palestinian, Princeton University, University of Southern, Columbia University Apartheid, Columbia, Cornell University and Yale, Research, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, CNN, University of California, Columbia’s Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Dallas Fed, Samsung, AMD, Starbucks, Benz Group, Volkswagen, PayPal, adidas, Diamondback Energy, Restaurant Brands, Pinterest, Caesars Entertainment, PMI, Conference Board, Mastercard, Qualcomm, Pfizer, Marriott, eBay, US Commerce Department, Apple, Novo Nordisk, Shell, ConocoPhillips, Cigna, Universal Music Group, Hershey, US Labor Department Locations: New York, New Jersey, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, Columbia, Palestine, Israel, Gaza, South Africa, Berkeley, United States, Europe, DoorDash
The Fed aims to keep inflation at 2% over the longer run. Meanwhile, among the 20 countries that use the euro, annual consumer price inflation has slowed steadily since the start of the year. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said earlier this month that she would favor a rate hike “should progress on inflation stall or even reverse.”So why does the United States appear to have a bigger inflation problem than Europe? Some economists argue there isn’t actually much daylight between the US and European rates of inflation, pointing to a quirk in the US measures. The measure is designed to track inflation in the real estate market while accounting for the fact that most Americans own their homes.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, Paul Donovan, Simon MacAdam, , MacAdam, ” Carsten Brzeski, Janet Yellen, Jim Watson, Brzeski, , ” Davide Oneglia Organizations: London CNN, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, PCE, UBS Global Wealth Management, Capital Economics, ING, CNN, Monetary Fund, Washington, Reuters, Getty, , ECB, Lombard Locations: United States, Europe, Centreville , Maryland, AFP, Russia, Ukraine
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFederated Hermes: European banking was 'about cost control' over the last yearFilippo Alloatti of Federated Hermes discusses the outlook for the European Central Bank's monetary policy.
Persons: Filippo Alloatti, Federated Hermes Organizations: Federated, Central
One strategist, however is looking keenly at European equities, and notes that "Europe isn't a boring market." "You would hope that will translate through to the stock market in terms of company earnings growth in Europe. "While you might see some kind of short-term downturn, in the longer-term the picture is very positive for the sector," Field added. He sees value in payments, which he described as "one of the most undervalued parts of European financial services." The sector has trailed market performance, with valuations looking "interesting" over the last 12 months, Morningstar noted in its recent report.
Persons: Michael Field, Field, Morningstar Organizations: CNBC Pro, European Central Bank, Consumer, Swatch Group, Financial, Morningstar, ING Bank, Group, Health, Novo Nordisk Locations: U.S, Europe, Netherlands, British, Swiss
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